Relevance

GS-2: International Relations (U.S. Foreign Policy, Russia-Ukraine Conflict, NATO’s Role)

GS-3: Geopolitical Economy (Resource Control, Rare Earth Minerals), Security Issues

Key Highlights

Shift in US Policy Towards Ukraine Conflict

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh, marking a policy reversal in the U.S. stance towards peace talks.
• Donald Trump’s election campaign emphasized ending the war, leading to a direct dialogue with Putin and Zelenskyy.
• Trump sees Ukraine’s war effort as unsustainable, criticizing Zelenskyy’s governance and proposing a U.S.-Ukraine mineral extraction deal to recover U.S. financial aid.

Geopolitical and Economic Considerations

• The war is depleting U.S. and European resources, leading to shifts in Western support for Ukraine.
• Trump’s strategy focuses on economic gains through Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, altering the U.S. military-industrial engagement.
• Russia’s advantage: Ukraine’s mineral-rich Donbas region is already under Russian control.

Challenges & Criticism

• Zelenskyy remains defiant, unwilling to cede territory, backed by EU resistance to a peace deal.
• NATO’s role in prolonging conflict: The war is seen as a proxy battle between NATO and Russia rather than a direct Ukraine-Russia conflict.
• Global mediation efforts: Earlier attempts by Turkey, India, and China were sidelined, with peace talks now shifting to Saudi Arabia.

Analysis & Way Forward

• If U.S. withdraws funding, Ukraine’s position weakens, increasing pressure for a negotiated settlement.
• The EU faces a dilemma: Continued support for Ukraine is costly, but abandoning it would weaken Europe’s strategic influence.
• India’s neutral stance has positioned it well, maintaining diplomatic leverage with Russia, the U.S., and Europe.

Mains Mock Question

“Discuss the implications of the US Policy shift on the Russia-Ukraine war. How does it impact global geopolitics and India’s strategic positioning?”

Read more: Trump 2.0, the new matrix of U.S.- India Defence Relations