As 2022 comes to an end, the world is embracing a ‘new normal’ where new fault lines are being reconfigured in the Indo-Pacific. The Indian Ocean and South Asian regions are at the heart of this contestation, considering their geo-political and geo-economic prominence and India’s emergence as a major power. As tensions between an aggressive China and an emerging India intensify, New Delhi’s Quad partners are also making inroads in its backyard, ushering significant changes in the region.
Indo-Pacific (IP) Region:
The term ‘Indo-Pacific’ has gained currency as a new construct in recent times. The Indo-Pacific provides a geographic and strategic expanse, with the two oceans being linked together by the ten ASEAN countries.
The Shifting Power Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific region has witnessed a significant shift in power dynamics, with major actors such as China, the United States, India, and Japan vying for influence. This contestation is fueled by strategic, economic, and geopolitical interests, presenting both opportunities and challenges for regional stability.
The Impact of Geopolitical Rivalries
Geopolitical rivalries in the Indo-Pacific, particularly between China and the United States, have raised concerns about the potential for tensions and conflicts. Competing territorial claims, maritime disputes, and military build-ups contribute to a complex security environment. Acknowledging and managing these rivalries while fostering diplomatic channels is essential for avoiding destabilization and promoting peaceful coexistence.
The Role of Multilateral Cooperation
Multilateral cooperation is crucial in addressing the challenges of the Indo-Pacific contestation. Institutions such as ASEAN, the Quad (comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia), and regional forums provide platforms for dialogue, confidence-building measures, and collaborative initiatives. Strengthening these cooperative frameworks is key to ensuring collective security, economic integration, and shared prosperity.
Embracing a New Paradigm: Balancing Competition and Cooperation
Accepting the new normal in the Indo-Pacific contestation necessitates a paradigm shift that balances competition and cooperation. While competition is inherent in strategic calculations, cooperation must be prioritized to tackle common challenges such as climate change, maritime security, and pandemic response. Engaging in dialogue, building trust, and fostering mutually beneficial partnerships can help build a resilient and inclusive Indo-Pacific community.
Nurturing Economic Connectivity and Sustainable Development
Economic connectivity and sustainable development are essential aspects of the new normal in the Indo-Pacific. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision, and regional connectivity projects aim to enhance economic integration and shared prosperity. Ensuring that these initiatives are transparent, environmentally sustainable, and inclusive can contribute to the long-term stability and development of the region.
Significance of Indo-Pacific region for India:
- Strategic Significance: Indio-Pacific, a multipolar region, holds over 50% of global GDP and population.
- Mineral Resources: Maritime territories are crucial for resources, including 10% of global fish catch and vast oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea.
- Economic Growth: Indo-Pacific nations generate over 60% of global GDP, making it the largest contributor to worldwide growth, according to the Asian Development Bank.
- Commerce and Choke Points: The region hosts vital choke points like the Straits of Malacca, pivotal for global commerce, with 32.2 million barrels of crude oil passing through annually and 40% of global exports originating from the area.
- Maritime Trade: Pacific islands hold strategic importance for New Delhi due to their location along key sea lines of communication crucial for major maritime trade routes.
China’s widening outreach The contestation for South Asia and the Indian Ocean is not new. China has long tried to mark its influence in these regions and enhance its strategic ambitions, namely, to limit Indian influence, military power, and status and to sustain its energy supply and economic growth.
Beijing’s outreach in South Asia increased manifold in the early 2000s with its economic boom. It began to further its strategic ends in the region through loans, financial incentives, and mega infrastructure projects; this became more institutionalised with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013.
Subsequently, these investments enabled Beijing to access the Indian Ocean, promote political and security ties in the region, harbour military vessels and submarines, and take certain islands and ports on lease ( including the Hambantota port of Sri Lanka). It is only with the Galwan clashes in 2020 that the Indian strategic thinking is deeming Beijing as a bigger threat than that of Islamabad. While the possibility of a two-front war persists, Pakistan’s strategic isolation, economic and political fallout, and border and terror challenges emanating from Afghanistan have minimised the likelihood of its aggression. On the other hand, Beijing’s larger strategic and diplomatic presence and grand ambitions have continued to trigger angst for New Delhi.
Steps by India, the rest of the Quad After Galwan, New Delhi has re-energized diplomatic efforts in its backyard. In the Maldives, New Delhi is reciprocating President Ibrahim Solih’s ‘India First’ policy with massive economic assistance, grants, and infrastructure projects and by also cooperating on maritime security.
In Nepal, Prime Minister Deuba’s government seeks to enhance bilateral ties with India. In crisis-ridden Sri Lanka, India has provided $4 billion in economic and humanitarian aid this year. India’s leadership in South Asia and the Indian Ocean has drawn support from Quad members (Japan, Australia, and the United States), fostering collaboration to counter China and present viable alternatives to the BRI.
New challenges:
However, the recent success of India and its partners is unlikely to deter China from furthering its presence in the region. Such an outcome is more unlikely, with tensions rising against India, and the Quad partners making inroads in South Asia.
Earlier this month, the Chinese surveillance vessel Yuan Wang-5 (it had docked in Sri Lanka in August), re-entered the Indian Ocean. A similar incident occurred last month when another vessel of the Yuan Wang series entered the Indian Ocean, coinciding with the test flight of the Agni-series
missile.
Beijing also hosted its first-ever China-Indian Ocean Region Forum, to institutionalize its presence in the region and challenge new initiatives such as the Quad and the Colombo Security Conclave.
Way forward: A balancing act:
Beijing will continue to leverage its financial and economic might and political influence in South Asia. But, most importantly, South Asian countries would also hesitate to completely move away from China as they hope to exercise their agency by balancing with China and India — essentially making this competition a ‘new normal’. And this trend will only increase with new players entering in the region.
Such a balancing outcome is very likely with most South Asian countries now facing economic and political turmoil. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have continued to haunt the region.
Nepal, the Maldives and Bhutan are struggling with depleting forex reserves. Bangladesh has reached a bailout agreement worth $4.5 billion with the International Monetary Fund. Sri Lanka is yet to chart its way out of the economic crisis.
Energy shortages, inflation, and negative or slow economic growth are also disrupting day-to-day activities in these countries.
As 2023 marks an election year for a large part of South Asia, these economic grievances combined with political opportunism will likely fuel more instability in the region. Ongoing protests in Bangladesh are a mere indication of such upcoming challenges.
Conclusion:
New Delhi and its partners which have only started to make recent gains against China, should be ready to embrace these challenges to retain its influence in its neighbourhood and prevent Chinese hegemony in the region.
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