Relevance:

• New Tools for Rogue Wave Forecasting

Content:

Rogue Waves are unusually large and spontaneous waves that can be up to twice the height of the surrounding waves, posing a significant threat to maritime safety. These waves are unpredictable, making them one of the most dangerous phenomena in the ocean.

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Formation

Rogue waves typically form under certain conditions:

1. Converging Swells: When swells from different weather systems converge, they can combine their energies, forming a single, amplified wave that becomes a rogue wave.
2. Ocean Currents: Strong ocean currents can compress waves, increasing their height dramatically and creating rogue waves.

Characteristics

• Rogue waves are distinct due to their sudden appearance and massive size, often far exceeding the surrounding sea state. They defy the typical predictions of wave behavior, making them extremely hazardous.

Sea State and Rogue Waves In oceanography, the term “sea state” describes the conditions of the ocean surface, often characterized by the World Meteorological Organizationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organization (WMO) sea state code, which ranges from 0 (calm) to 9 (very high waves over 14 meters). Rogue waves disrupt the average sea state, appearing without warning and exceeding expected wave heights.

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Threats Posed by Rogue Waves

1. Shipping Hazards: Rogue waves are notorious for causing severe damage to ships and vessels. Their immense size can lead to capsizing or significant structural damage, endangering lives and cargo.

2. Impact on Offshore Infrastructure: Offshore structures like oil rigs and wind turbines are also at risk. Rogue waves can cause catastrophic damage to these installations, leading to substantial economic losses.

3. Coastal Dangers:

• Erosion: The force of rogue waves can accelerate coastal erosion, impacting shorelines and beaches.
• Flooding: Coastal communities are at risk from the sudden and severe flooding caused by rogue waves, which can lead to loss of property and life.

4. Human Safety: Rogue waves have been responsible for numerous fatalities. Between 2011 and 2018, rogue waves resulted in at least 386 deaths globally, highlighting their deadly nature.

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Advancements in Forecasting

Until recently, rogue waves were nearly impossible to predict due to their sudden and rare occurrence. However, recent advancements in technology have provided hope for better forecasting. Mathematicians from the University of Maryland, Thomas Breunung and Balakumar
Balachandran, have developed an artificial intelligence (AI) program capable of predicting rogue waves. This AI program was trained using billions of data points collected from 172 ocean buoys, analyzing 20-minute-long samples to forecast these dangerous waves.

Conclusion

Rogue waves continue to pose a significant threat to maritime activities, coastal infrastructure, and human safety. The development of new forecasting techniques, such as the AI program from the University of Maryland, offers a promising step forward in mitigating the risks associated with these unpredictable natural phenomena.

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