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Hottest in 100,000 years?

Context : Earth is currently on course to reach temperatures of roughly 3°C  above preindustrial levels by the end of the century......

Context : Earth is currently on course to reach temperatures of roughly 3°C  above preindustrial levels by the end of the century.

  • Current global heatwave raises curiosity about past extreme temperatures.
  • Modern data shows 2023 as one of the hottest years recorded.
  • Claims of 100,000-year high lack precise evidence due to limited historical temperature records.

Here’s what we can confidently say about when Earth was last this hot.

 State of New Climate
  • Scientists concluded Earth entered a new climate state not seen in 100,000 years based on a climate assessment report published by the IPCC in 2021.
  • Climate scientists Nick McKay and  Darrell Kaufman discussed this conclusion in a recent scientific journal article.
  • Earth’s temperature was already more than 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than preindustrial times.
  • Greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere were high, ensuring prolonged elevated temperatures.
  • In the most optimistic future scenarios with reduced greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature will likely stay at least 1°C above preindustrial levels.
  • This elevated temperature could persist for multiple centuries and may even increase further.
  • The new climate state exhibits global warming of 1°C and higher, lasting for multiple centuries.
  • This state allows for reliable comparison with temperature records from the distant past.
Earth’s average temperature has exceeded 1 degree Celsius (1.8 F) above the preindustrial baseline. This new climate state will very likely persist for centuries as the warmest period in more than 100,000 years. The chart shows different reconstructions of temperature over time, with measured temperatures since 1850 and a projection to 2300 based on an intermediate emissions scenario. 
How we estimate past temperature?
  • Sediment-based records are valuable for reconstructing past global temperatures.
  • However, they have limitations due to sediment mixing by currents and burrowing organisms.
  • Short-term temperature spikes may be blurred in the records.
  • The precise timeline for each record is unknown, leading to cancellation of fine-scale fluctuations.
  • Comparing long-term past temperatures with short-term extremes is challenging for paleoclimate scientists.
Hottest in 100,000 years?
  • Earth’s average global temperature fluctuates between glacial and interglacial conditions in cycles lasting about 100,000 years.
  • These cycles are driven by slow and predictable changes in Earth’s orbit.
  • Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere also play a role in these temperature fluctuations.
  • Currently in an interglacial period, starting about 12,000 years ago, marked by ice sheet retreat and increased greenhouse gas levels.
  • The interglacial period began approximately 12,000 years ago.
  • Global temperatures might have peaked around 6,000 years ago during this period.
  • According to the IPCC report, the temperature increase likely did not exceed 1°C at that time.
  • Last glacial episode lasted about 100,000 years; no evidence of reaching preindustrial baseline.
  • Previous interglacial period peaked around 125,000 years ago; evidence of warmer temperatures.
  • Long-term average temperature likely no more than 1.5°C (2.7 F) above preindustrial levels.
Now what?
  • Without rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emission reductions, Earth may reach temperatures around 3°C (5.4 F) above preindustrial levels by the century’s end.
  • We would need to look back millions of years to find a similarly hot climate state.
  • The Pliocene epoch, when Earth’s climate supported the rise of agriculture and civilization, might be comparable.

Hottest in 100000 years?,Hottest in 100000 years?

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